One Month of Saint Paul Saints

It has been a while, but I'm back to give an update as to what we as a company have been up to for the past two months. Leading up to the beginning of the St. Paul Saints season opener, we had to do a complete overhaul of our statistical models. We had a breakthrough wherein we found a much more accurate way of representing a player's production, while also simplifying the process of calculating these values. We scrapped the manual entry of data and replaced it with a predictive formula and program that does it for us. These changes, as well as a very busy late-May and early-June, are why we have disappeared for the past few months. In the future we will try to post updates on a weekly basis, as well as updated stat sheets and box scores following every remaining home game. You can find all that at our twitter.

Now onto our findings. So far this season we have stuck to Offensive statistics, because the transition from MLB stats to American Association stats took a bit to transition through. Our stats are based on average scoring tendencies so we spent about a week looking into how they differed between leagues. We have four major statistics that we are using. Below will be an explanation of each of these stats, and how to use them to gage a player's offensive production.

  • HitRuns - HitRuns are our way of measuring a given player’s production with a bat in their hands. To do this, we have our own way of accurately representing what the average single, double, triple and homerun does to change the average number of runs scored in that inning. 
  • NegRuns - NegRuns are what we use to measure the effects of non-movement producing outs. This includes any time an out is recorded that is statistically more likely to hurt the team than the average out. For the American Association we concluded that this should include double plays, strikeouts, and runners caught stealing. We use a similar method to determine the effect each of these outs has on run production as a team.
  • RAA - Runs Against Average are the difference between HitRuns and NegRuns.
  • RAA/4PA - This is the number of RAA you can expect to produce through an “average” game of 4 plate appearances. This is useful for players who haven’t been with the team for as long and therefore their stats don’t looks as impressive. Take these numbers with a grain of salt however, because small sample sizes often lead to weird and not repeatable numbers, such as Kevin Millar's stats because he is 1-1 with a Home Run.

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